Boeing expects short-term industry disruption to have limited impact on long-term aviation growth. The company forecasts that demand for air travel will double over the next 20 years, while the global commercial airplane fleet grows by about 80% to more than 50,000 aircraft by 2045.
Ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, Boeing released its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook. The outlook projects demand for 44,000 new airplanes over the next two decades, driven by passenger growth, cargo expansion, and fleet replacement. About half of those deliveries are expected to replace older aircraft with more fuel-efficient models.
Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing, said airlines are adapting to near-term constraints while resilient travel demand continues to support fleet growth and modernization.
Passengers are changing destinations and routes instead of cancelling travel altogether.
Point-to-point and short-haul leisure travel are leading traffic growth.
Some long-haul markets, including parts of the Middle East, have seen the strongest short-term impact.
Long-term demand remains supported by tourism, trade, commerce, and dispersed family and friend networks.
Passenger traffic is expected to grow by 4% per year, doubling global air traffic between 2026 and 2045.
Airlines have added 5,500 new airport pairs since 2015, increasing network size by 30% and giving passengers more direct travel options.
Service models are becoming more varied, from ultra-low-cost options to premium offerings.
Premium travel is growing in North America and Northeast Asia, supported by higher incomes and wealth effects.
Low-cost travel is expanding in emerging markets such as Latin America, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia.
Without newer, more efficient jets, airlines would need about 9,000 more airplanes to carry the same number of passengers.
Boeing projects 44,000 new airplane deliveries over the next 20 years.
Mature regions, including North America, Eurasia, Oceania, and Northeast Asia, are expected to account for about 45% of new deliveries.
Transitioning and emerging markets, including China, the Middle East, Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa, are expected to account for about 55%.
Low-cost carrier fleets are forecast to grow by 4% per year, compared with 3% for network carriers.
Fleet replacement demand is rising. By 2045, less than 10% of previous-generation aircraft are expected to remain in service.
Air cargo demand remains resilient as operators adjust routes in response to geopolitical disruption.
International freighter capacity has increased 5% year to date in 2026.
Air cargo traffic is forecast to grow by about 3.7% per year through 2045.
Demand is supported by high-value, perishable, and time-sensitive goods, as well as supply chain reliability and cross-border e-commerce.
Aircraft type | Projected deliveries |
Single aisle | 33,545 |
Widebody | 7,715 |
Regional | 1,435 |
Freighters | 930 |
Total | 43,625 |
Passenger traffic has continued to grow despite double-digit oil price swings in 17 of the last 25 years.
Half of the 5,500 new routes added over the last decade are served daily or more.
Airlines generate about half of their revenue from premium passenger traffic, cargo, and ancillary revenue streams.
The global single-aisle fleet is expected to double to more than 36,000 jets.
More than 8,000 widebody airplanes are expected to be in service by 2045.
Air cargo growth and fleet renewal will drive demand for more than 2,900 production and converted freighters.
Boeing has published the Commercial Market Outlook since 1961. The full 2026 outlook is available at boeing.com/cmo.
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